The Rising Demand for Nurse Practitioners, Physician Assistants, and Physicians through 2034.
We have seen a big demand for NPs and PAs over the past 10 years and we have seen a consistent physician shortage over the past 10 years. Physician recruiters face major problems because of the physician shortages, especially in rural healthcare. Can we possibly see an increased demand for NPs, PAs and Physicians in the next 10 years? Is it true with baby boomers retiring there isn’t a big enough workforce to care for these baby boomers? Are we as Americans getting sicker? Do we have more access to care or less? Does America have enough Geriatricians to serve the baby boomers? This article will answer these questions.
Medical care in America is undergoing sizable transformation, driven by an aging population, the prevalence of chronic diseases, and increased access to medical care. This evolution has placed Nurse Practitioners (NPs), Physician Assistants (PAs), and Physicians at the forefront of meeting the country’s growing healthcare needs. Over the next 10 years, these roles are projected to experience significant demand as the healthcare system seeks to adapt to both current and future challenges.
4 Factors Driving Demand
1. Aging Population
By 2034, the U.S. Census Bureau estimates that adults aged 65 and older will outnumber children for the first time in the nation’s history. This demographic shift is creating a surge in age-related health issues, including cardiovascular disease, arthritis, Alzheimer’s disease, and cancer.
2. Rising Rates of Chronic Diseases
The prevalence of chronic illnesses is another significant factor. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 6 in 10 adults in the U.S. have at least one chronic condition, while 4 in 10 have two or more. Conditions such as diabetes, hypertension, and obesity require continuous management, often handled by NPs and PAs under a collaborative care model.
3. Expanding Access to Care
Healthcare policies, such as those under the Affordable Care Act and Medicaid expansion, have increased access to medical care for millions of Americans. Additionally, the rise of telehealth services has expanded the reach of care to underserved populations in rural and urban areas. These factors have heightened the demand for skilled providers who can deliver cost-effective and high-quality care.
4. Physician Shortages
While the demand for healthcare professionals is increasing, the supply of physicians is not keeping pace. The Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) projects a shortage of between 37,800 and 124,000 physicians by 2034. This gap is especially pronounced in primary care and certain specialties, such as psychiatry and geriatrics.
Statistical Projections for NPs, PAs, and Physicians
Nurse Practitioners (NPs)
NPs have become integral to the healthcare workforce, thanks to their ability to provide comprehensive care in both primary and specialty settings. Their role continues to expand, particularly in states granting full practice authority.
- Growth Projections: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates a 45% growth in NP employment from 2022 to 2032, significantly outpacing the average for all occupations.
- Current Workforce (2023): ~355,000
- Projected Workforce (2032): ~515,000
- Median Salary (2023): ~$124,000/year
Physician Assistants (PAs)
PAs are vital members of healthcare teams, providing diagnostic, therapeutic, and preventive care across a wide range of specialties. Their flexibility and collaborative approach make them highly sought after in both primary care and specialty practices.
- Growth Projections: PA employment is expected to grow by 27% from 2022 to 2032, according to the BLS.
- Current Workforce (2023): ~159,000
- Projected Workforce (2032): ~202,000
- Median Salary (2023): ~$121,000/year
Physicians
Although physician employment growth is projected at 4% from 2022 to 2032, the looming shortage of doctors remains a pressing issue. Factors such as lengthy education and training pathways, high levels of burnout, and retirement among older physicians contribute to the shortfall.
- Current Workforce (2023): ~950,000
- Shortage Projection (2034): Between 37,800 and 124,000 physicians, particularly in primary care, psychiatry, and rural settings.
Specialty-Specific Trends
1. Primary Care
Primary care remains the backbone of the U.S. healthcare system, yet it faces significant challenges due to a shortage of providers. NPs and PAs are increasingly stepping in to fill these gaps, with NPs projected to deliver nearly one-third of primary care by 2032.
2. Psychiatric Mental Health
The demand for mental health services has skyrocketed in recent years, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Psychiatry is one of the specialties most affected by physician shortages, and NPs and PAs specializing in mental health are stepping up to meet this need.
3. Geriatrics
With the aging population, geriatrics is becoming a critical specialty. However, the AAMC predicts a shortage of over 30,000 geriatricians by 2030. NPs and PAs trained in elder care are increasingly filling this gap.
4. Telehealth
The rapid adoption of telehealth has reshaped how care is delivered. Providers of all types, especially NPs and PAs, are leveraging telemedicine to extend their reach into rural and underserved areas. A McKinsey report found that telehealth usage is now 38 times higher than pre-pandemic levels.
4 Strategies to Meet the Growing Demand
1. Grow the Educational Pathways
To meet the growing demand, increasing the number of educational programs for NPs and PAs is essential. Scholarships, loan repayment programs, and other incentives can encourage more students to enter these fields.
2. Policy and Practice Authority
Many states have already granted full practice authority to NPs, allowing them to work independently without physician oversight. Expanding this policy nationwide could further alleviate the physician shortage and increase access to care.
3. Leveraging AI and Technology
Technology, including artificial intelligence and telehealth platforms, can streamline workflows and allow providers to focus on high-value care. This is especially critical in addressing rural healthcare shortages.
4. Recruitment and Retention
Healthcare systems and staffing firms must prioritize competitive compensation packages, professional development opportunities, and wellness programs to recruit and retain top talent.
The #1 Challenge to Overcome
While the outlook for NPs, PAs, and Physicians is optimistic, challenges remain. Burnout continues to affect providers across all disciplines, particularly physicians, where it has reached crisis levels. Addressing workplace stress, improving work-life balance, and fostering supportive work environments are critical to sustaining the healthcare workforce.
Additionally, healthcare organizations must address disparities in provider distribution. Rural and underserved areas are often hit hardest by shortages, necessitating targeted incentives to attract and retain providers in these regions.
Conclusion
The next decade will bring ever increasing demand for Nurse Practitioners, Physician Assistants, and Physicians, driven by an aging population, the higher prevalence of chronic diseases, and expanded access to care. While NPs and PAs will take on an important role in primary and specialty care, the physician shortage remains a pressing concern. Will NPs and PAs really be able to ‘bridge the gap’ with the physician shortages that we have?
There are some steps we can take such as increasing educational opportunities, granting full practice authority, and leveraging technology. These will be critical to meeting this demand. For healthcare organizations, policymakers, and staffing firms, understanding these trends and proactively addressing challenges will be essential to ensuring a robust, well-prepared workforce.
As the healthcare landscape continues to evolve, these professionals will play a pivotal role in delivering the high-quality, accessible care that patients need. Their impact will shape the future of healthcare for decades to come.
From the Desk of David Wolfe
Founder and CEO, NOW Healthcare Recruiting